How can India qualify for WTC final 2025 if Gabba Test draw vs Australia? Qualification scenarios explained

India WTC final qualification: Rohit Sharma’s team cannot afford to drop points after drawing the Gabba against Australia in the context of the World Test Championship scenario.

India’s chances to qualify for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final took another turn after the third Border-Gavaskar Test against Australia ended in a draw in Brisbane on Wednesday.

India’s WTC points percentage (PCT) slipped from 57.29 to 55.88. India remained in the third spot on the WTC standings, behind South Africa and Australia.

How many defeats can India afford from here?

To qualify for the WTC 2025 final, India cannot afford another defeat in their remaining two matches. Moreover, India can only afford a maximum of one draw in the remaining games. With the Gabba Test ending in a draw,  Rohit and Co. can accumulate 138 points at a 60.52 PCT with two outright wins in Melbourne and Sydney, which cannot be overhauled by Australia. That would require India to pull off a stunning 3-1 coup Down Under against the defending WTC champions.

India’s WTC final scenarios

• If India beat Australia 3-1, they will finish with 138 points and a PCT of 60.52. Australia will only be able to finish with a 57 PCT then, should they win the remaining games in Sri Lanka, effectively knocking them out of the race.
• If India draw Australia 2-2, they will finish with 126 points and a PCT of 57.01. Australia, in such a scenario, can move ahead to 130 points by the end of the series and knock India out of the WTC final race.

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