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2024 PGA Championship odds: Surprising PGA picks, Sunday predictions from golf model that nailed 11 majors

SportsLine’s Golf Model Simulates Final Round of 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club

the second time in his major championship career, Xander Schauffele enters the final round with a share of the lead, tying with Collin Morikawa at 15-under in the 2024 PGA Championship. Schauffele, who was in a similar position during the 2018 Open Championship but did not secure the win, aims for his first major title as the final round kicks off on Sunday. Close behind at -14 is Sahith Theegala, whose best major finish so far is ninth. Schauffele is currently the favorite with odds of +250 (risk $100 to win $250), while Morikawa follows closely at +260.

Theegala shares his odds of +650 with Bryson DeChambeau, who is two shots off the lead. Viktor Hovland (+750) and Shane Lowry (+1200) are both at 13-under and are the only other contenders with odds below +4000. The final round begins at 7:45 a.m. ET, with the leading pair teeing off at 2:35 p.m. ET. Before making any bets, check the 2024 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, created by DFS expert Mike McClure, has been highly successful since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. The model has generated nearly $9,000 on its best bets, consistently predicting tournament winners. It accurately projected Scottie Scheffler’s victories at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure’s model also included Hideki Matsuyama in its winning bets for the 2024 Genesis Invitational at +9000, bringing substantial returns.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm’s triumphs at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express, as well as his second major win at the 2023 Masters, despite Rahm being two strokes off the lead entering the third round. This marked the model’s second consecutive correct prediction for the Masters. Moreover, the model accurately forecasted wins for Nick Taylor (70-1) at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. Having nailed 11 majors entering the weekend and predicting the Masters winner three years in a row, the model offers significant returns to its followers.

With three rounds completed at the 2024 PGA Championship, SportsLine simulated the final round 10,000 times, yielding surprising results. Visit SportsLine to view the projected leaderboard for the final round of the 2024 PGA Championship.

Top 2024 PGA Championship Sunday Predictions

One unexpected forecast from the model is that Lowry, who made history on Saturday with his 62, will struggle to barely finish in the top 10. Better value bets are available for Round 4. Despite his remarkable Saturday performance, Lowry is two strokes behind and faces tough competition. He posted 69 on both Thursday and Friday, and similar scores are expected for Round 4. Given his recent PGA Tour finishes—T19 or worse in his last three individual events and no top-10 finishes in this championship recently—the model advises against betting on him.

Conversely, the model predicts a surprising surge from Justin Thomas, who is 10-under and five strokes off the lead. Priced at +8000, he is an attractive option for a big payout. Thomas, still seeking his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship, has had a rebound season in 2024 with three top-10 and six top-25 finishes. Remembering his remarkable seven-shot comeback to win the 2022 PGA Championship, the model favors him to outpace several players currently ahead on the leaderboard. Check SportsLine for more picks and predictions.