Sabalenka vs. Pegula: Who will win the 2024 US Open women’s title?

On Saturday,Jessica PegulaandAryna Sabalenkawill play for the US Open title (4 p.m. ET (ESPN; ESPN+). Pegula is the underdog, playing her first major final, while Sabalenka has two Australian Open titles and has made the US Open final the past two years.

Who will prevail? Our experts weigh in.

What can Pegula do to defeat Sabalenka?

Jason Goodall:For Pegula to stand any kind of chance at all — barring a Sabalenka meltdown — she has to solve the puzzle of how to return Sabalenka’s first serve and win enough points on her own second serve.

At the Cincinnati Open final — granted the conditions were a lot quicker, which played into Sabalenka’s hands — Pegula really struggled to handle the slice serve out wide to her forehand in the right court. Even if she got it back, Sabalenka then made very good use of her first shot to outmaneuver Pegula.

And when she got a look at Pegula’s second serve — which is highly predictable — she jumped all over it. Can Pegula serve well enough to create scoreboard pressure — and can she return well enough to neutralize Sabalenka’s serve?

D’Arcy Maine:It’s going to be an uphill battle for the American. In addition to Sabalenka’s experience in major finals, she also has a 5-2 series edge over Pegula.

But Pegula wasn’t exactly favored againstIga Swiatekin the quarters either. Nor did she look like she had much chance of reaching the final during the first set againstKarolina Muchovaon Thursday night. And yet, here she is.

If Pegula wants to defeat Sabalenka on Saturday, she can’t afford to have a slow and flat start like she did on Thursday. She will need to be ready to go from the very first point. But she knows exactly what to expect after the two met in the Cincinnati final less than three weeks ago. Pegula said she knew she would have to be aggressive, “put some pressure on her serve,” and just play her game. She has been largely unflappable and calm throughout the fortnight and must remain equally composed on Saturday despite playing in the biggest match of her life.

Bill Connelly:The serve is just about everything. In Pegula’s two wins over Sabalenka (Cincinnati 2020 and Cancun 2023), she landed at least 61% of her first serves and won at least 63% of her first-serve points; in five losses, her first-serve percentage was 59% or worse four times, and her first-serve win percentage was 56% or worse four times. Sabalenka is such a big server that you aren’t going to get as many break opportunities, and you have to create as many easy holds as possible for yourself. Pegula is capable, and her serve got better and better as her semifinal win over Muchova unfolded, but the bar is very high here.

Tom Hamilton:Play the game of her life and channel the crowd. This will be an incredible occasion for Pegula, and she must use the hype and expectation as fuel, rather than something to fan the butterflies in her stomach. She can’t afford to let Sabalenka get off to a fast start, and have the same slow beginning to the match like she did against Muchova.

“I was about to burst into tears, because it was embarrassing. She was destroying me,” Pegula said after her eventual semifinal win on Thursday. Pegula regards Sabalenka as the “favorite to win this tournament,” but Pegula has to park all of that and ignore the tale of tape, which has Sabalenka holding a 5-2 lead in the head-to-head. Pegula is used to upsetting the odds, like she did against Swiatek, but she has to throw everything at Sabalenka from the get-go.

Ohm Youngmisuk:Pegula is going to have to keep Sabalenka from getting comfortable. That could means changing pace, mixing it up with topspin and slice, taking the ball early and occasionally coming in to give Sabalenka different looks.

The longer the points, the better it might be for Pegula. At one point in her semifinal win between the second and third sets, Pegula won 10 of 17 points that had nine or more balls hit during the point. Pegula will have to rely on her tennis IQ and will to win and hope to tire Sabalenka out with long rallies. More than anything, she has to get the crowd involved. The majority of Arthur Ashe Stadium will be behind her. She has to get the crowd behind her and get it amped.

What can Sabalenka do to defeat Pegula?

Goodall:Sabalenka is the firm favorite, drawing off all that she learned from last year’s heartbreaking loss toCoco Gauffin the US Open final. She will come into this final forewarned and forearmed.

She will also know that the game plan she executed in the Cincinnati final works perfectly, so the focus will be just about execution under pressure. Can Sabalenka handle the moment as the favorite with the crowd against her, which is where she struggled in last year’s final?

Maine:Continue to do exactly what she has done throughout her tremendous run on the hard court this summer. In her past 11 matches — during which she has won the Cincinnati title and reached the final here in New York — she has dropped just one set.

She knows all the emotions that come with playing in such a match and even what it’s like to face an American on Ashe with a title on the line. In 2023, after winning the opening set in the final against Gauff, she struggled with the crowd heavily against her and let the nerves creep in. On Thursday against AmericanEmma Navarro, Sabalenka struggled to close out the match in the second set as the crowd raucously cheered on her opponent. But she used her past experience to help her focus and get through. She called last year’s loss a “very tough lesson” — but one she wasn’t going to let happen again. That mentality and learning from her previous mistakes could help lift her to her third Slam title on Saturday.

Connelly:Nothing. Nothingnew, at least. Sabalenka’s quite simply the best hard-courter in the world. In her past five hard-court Slams, she’s currently 31-2. She has won 11 of 15 sets all time against Pegula, she has won 22 of her past 23 sets overall and she served Pegula off the court in the Cincinnati final just a few weeks ago. After a rough stretch in three-setters — she lost nine of 15 of them from Summer 2023 to Spring 2024 — she has won eight of her past 11. She’s the gold standard on this court, and it’s all on Pegula to find a way past her.

Hamilton:As everyone else says, just do what comes naturally on this surface. It would be the perfect bookend to a year which saw her win the Australian Open back in January, then suffer illness during her quarterfinal defeat toMirra Andreevain Paris, pull out of Wimbledon with a shoulder injury, and then return in remarkable form for this swing in New York. Sabalenka knows what it takes to win Slam finals, and that experience will be invaluable come Saturday. But she must block out the crowd — she’ll have pockets of support, but it’ll feel like the world is against her.

Youngmisuk:Sabalenka just has to play her game, stay focused, remain confident and keep her emotions in check in what will be a pro-Pegula crowd. The US Open fans will want to see an American at the top again. Sabalenka can take the crowd out of the match early by overpowering Pegula and dominating like she has much of this tournament. Once she gets on a roll, it is so hard to stop her. And when Pegula does make a run with the full stadium behind her, Sabalenka has to withstand the storm.

Who will win?

Maine:Sabalenka. It would be incredible to see an American woman win the title for the second straight year — and Pegula’s resilience and persistence make for a great story — but it’s hard to see anyone beating Sabalenka on this surface right now. Sabalenka is not going to let this opportunity slip away again and she wins it in straight sets.

Connelly:Yep, Sabalenka. Pegula has beaten her before, and nothing’s impossible, but the odds are heavily on Sabalenka’s side, and for very good reason. Pegula will have to serve Gauff, get in her head a little bit. But I’m going to say Sabalenka in straight sets.

Hamilton:If Pegula pulls this off, then it should go down as one of the greatest feats in modern American tennis history. But Sabalenka is just playing too well and knows what it takes to get across the line, so she has the form and experience to get this done.

Youngmisuk:Pegula has had such a wonderful run. She will have what will feel like an entire New York City cheering her on to win the title. But Sabalenka is just playing at another level right now. She has won 35 of 38 sets she has played in majors this season (92%). It’s hard seeing Sabalenka not finishing the job and taking the US Open title.

The betting perspective

Pamela Maldonado:Jessica Pegula +250 vs. Aryna Sabalenka

In a Grand Slam final, the mental aspect of the game often outweighs pure skill. Jessica Pegula has demonstrated remarkable mental fortitude throughout the 2024 US Open. Her quarterfinal victory over world No. 1 Iga Swiątek in straight sets was a significant breakthrough, marking her first win against Swiątek in a Grand Slam and her first major quarterfinal victory after six previous attempts. This achievement represents a major mental milestone, showcasing Pegula’s ability to overcome past disappointments and elevate her performance.

Pegula’s resilience was further evident in her semifinal comeback against Muchova, where she rallied from a set and a break down. These performances show me that Pegula is mentally prepared for the final.

Regarding the matchup with Sabalenka, Pegula’s strong return game could be crucial, potentially exploiting Sabalenka’s occasional serving inconsistencies. Pegula’s game, built on consistency and minimizing unforced errors, contrasts with Sabalenka’s more aggressive style. Her excellent court coverage and ability to extend rallies could frustrate power players such as Sabalenka.

Pegula has also demonstrated tactical flexibility. In her semifinal against Muchova, she adjusted her strategy after losing the first set, varying her serves, targeting Muchova’s backhand and increasing aggression on returns in the third set. This adaptability could be a key factor in the final against Sabalenka. Swinging big for the outright win in Pegula’s first major final.